Oct. 21, 2010

DWU Tiger Poll:
Republicans Hold Advantage in Constitutional Races
but Most Offices Still Up for Grabs

MITCHELL, S.D. – Many South Dakotans are still undecided on the down-the-ticket races for constitutional offices, according to the most recent DWU Tiger Poll, but in every race surveyed, the Republican candidate has a lead over their Democratic Party rival going into the upcoming November elections.

The majority of Republicans and Democrats intend to remain loyal to their party’s candidates, but among those who plan to vote across party lines, more are Democrats than Republicans. The DWU Tiger Poll appears to mirror the results of many recent statewide, regional and national polls which show many Democratic Party candidates are facing strong Republican opposition as mid-term elections near.

“The candidates will get most of their support from registered voters from their own party,” said Andrew Farrand, student pollster from Aberdeen. “The key to winning this fall will be the number of crossover votes from the other party that a down-the-ticket candidate can get.”

In general election match-ups in the race for the office of secretary of state between Jason Gant, the Republican, Lori Stacey, the Constitution Party candidate, and Ben Nesselhuf, the Democrat, the data suggests Gant has a slight lead, 35 percent to 23 percent over Nesselhuf, with Stacey trailing a distant third with 2 percent. The largest percentage of respondents, 38 percent, remain undecided. Seven percent of self-identified Democrats indicated they would support Gant, the Republican, but less than 1 percent of self-identified Republicans indicated that they would support Nesselhuf, the Democrat.

In the race for the office of state auditor between Steve Barnett, the Republican, and Julie Bartling, the Democrat, the survey data indicates Barnett has a sizeable lead, 43 percent to 25 percent over Bartling, with 32 percent of respondents still undecided. Fifteen percent of self-identified Democrats indicated they would support Barnett, the Republican, but only 3 percent of self-identified Republicans indicated that they would support Bartling, the Democrat.

Poll results for the match-up between Rich Sattgast, the Republican, and Tom Katus, the Democrat, in the race for the office of state treasurer seem to indicate that Sattgast, with 31 percent, and Katus, with 26 percent, are within the sample’s margin of error and in a virtual statistical dead heat, with a whopping 40 percent of respondents still undecided. Six percent of self-identified Democrats indicated they would support Sattgast, the Republican, with 4 percent of self-identified Republicans indicated that they would support Katus, the Democrat.

In the race for the office of attorney general between Marty Jackley, the recently appointed Republican incumbent, and Ron Volesky, the Democrat, the data suggests Jackley has a commanding lead, 46 percent to 28 percent over Volesky, with only 23 percent of respondents still undecided. Fifteen percent of self-identified Democrats indicated they would support Jackley, the Republican, with 7 percent of self-identified Republicans indicating that they would support Volesky, the Democrat.

Incumbent Public Utilities Commissioner Dusty Johnson, a Republican, who faces challenger Doyle Karpen, a Democrat, is leading comfortably in his bid to retain his seat according to the DWU Tiger Poll. Fifty percent of respondents indicated they would vote for Johnson, compared to 18 percent who supported Karpen, with 30 percent still undecided. Johnson’s support among self-identified Democrats was an impressive 27 percent, when compared to Karpen’s 41 percent among his fellow Democrats. Among self-identified Republicans, Johnson polled 72 percent, with Karpen receiving support from only 3 percent of Republicans.

“With the exception of the public utilities and attorney general races, where incumbents have sizeable leads, the down-the ticket constitutional races still have a lot of undecided voters,” said Dr. Donald Simmons, executive director of the McGovern Center and dean of public service and leadership at DWU. “The election for state treasurer, for example, will be decided by which candidate works the hardest these last few weeks and the success of media strategies.”

The DWU Tiger Poll is a joint project of the McGovern Center for Leadership and Public Service and the DWU Mathematics Department. Donald Watt, Simmons, Michael Catalano and Rocky Von Eye form the faculty research team for the 2010 DWU Tiger Poll. The undergraduate student research coordinators for the 2010 DWU Tiger Poll are Christen Hildebrandt and Derik Fossum. Andrew Farrand, Lynn Geuke, Eric Moller, Lex Moore, Aaron Rolen, Lucas Sieve and Ethan Opsahl, statistical analyst, formed the student research team for the survey.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 5 percent for the entire statewide sample. Subset sample margins of error vary depending on selected sample sizes. Totals may not equal 100 percent as all percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number.

More detailed information about the poll results is available online at www.mcgoverncenter.com/poll2010.